Анализ чувствительности инвестиционного проекта
Оценка восприимчивости измеряет уровень воздействия первоначальных характеристик программы на итоговые параметры. Основная величина, измеряющая количественные и качественные характеристики проекта — уровень дохода.
Анализированные характеристики проходят несколько этапов обработки данных:
- Изменение определенного параметра в необходимых границах.
- Основные данные изменениям не подлежат.
- Вибрация рассматривается как положительная характеристика, от которой зависит устойчивость проекта.
- Чем выше вибрационные характеристики, тем больше вероятности успешности плана.
Критическая величина переменой влияет на результат и уровень осуществимости эффективного плана.
Основными исходными переменными являются следующие показатели:
- Количество продаваемой продукции.
- Стоимость единицы продукта.
- Количество затраченных средств, а также их основные компоненты.
- Период производства.
- Стоимость каждого этапа проекта, а также на основные элементы.
- Возможность задержки платежа.
- Возможность повышение ценового диапазона.
- Процентная ставка кредитования, дисконтная ставка.
Результативными исходными переменными считаются следующие показатели:
- Эффективность проекта, как основной показатель результата программы:
- Дисконтированная прибыль в чистом виде.
- Внутренние границы дохода.
- Индексация уровня прибыли.
- Период продажи продукции, и ее окупаемость.
- Выгодность инвестиционного проекта.
- Параметры программы ежегодного характера:
- Доход как основной параметр баланса организации.
- Доход в чистом виде.
- Уровень разности инвестиций и расхода реальной денежной суммы.
Оценка восприимчивости определяется 2 способами:
- Относительная оценка переменной.
- Абсолютная оценка переменной.
При относительной оценке восприимчивости сравнивают следующие показатели:
- Уровень влияние основной переменной на начальном этапе (при этом изменяется фиксированная величина в процентном эквиваленте).
- Результативная переменная программы.
При абсолютной оценке восприимчивости происходит анализ следующих действий:
- На сколько значений отклоняется результативная переменная в численной форме, если переменная первоначального параметра изменяется.
- Показатель переменной, который соответствует нулевому значению результативного компонента, определяется показателем первоначальным элементом.
Результативный показатель оценки восприимчивости вносится в табличную или графическую форму. Это придается наглядности параметрам, что является основой презентационной цели.
Цель анализа чувствительности проекта
Основной задачей оценки восприимчивости считается формулировка исследования параметров производительности к оценке разнообразных показателей.
Основной вопрос, на который должен дать ответ исследователь, является Какие характеристики изменятся, если произойдет следующее действие?
Определить степень воздействия основного фактора на итог программы считается основной целью оценки восприимчивости.
Основными факторами являются следующие положения:
- Количество проданного товара или оказанной услуги (объем продукции в натуральной единице измерения).
- Стоимость реализации товара, в которую включают работа и услуги.
- Производственная издержка (стоимость сырья, материала, комплектующих элементов, тарифная сетка заработной энергии).
- Стоимость рекламного оснащения и коммерческие затраты.
- Стоимость управления и производства (заработная плата сотрудников предприятия, арендная плата, цена электроэнергии, ремонтные работы технической и вспомогательной аппаратуры).
- Инвестиционные затраты на приобретение технического оснащения, строительные работы склада для хранения материала и готовых продуктов.
- Реконструкция основной производственной и вспомогательной площади.
- Процентная ставка кредитования.
- Дополнительные факторы, к которым относятся повышение стоимости сырья и материалов, налоговый вычет, задержка платежа.
Оценка восприимчивости программы определяет возможные границы перемен фактора. При этом рассматривается возможность изменения объемов продукции и ее стоимости, рабочей силы и предоставляемых услуг.
Суть анализа чувствительности
Возможные сценарии развития оценки восприятия программы помогает проанализировать возможность перемены показателей. При этом исследуется исход каждого варианта отдельно и применяется наиболее выгодный прогноз планирования.
Наиболее часто используют электронные таблицы и специальные компьютерные программы для моделирования возможных результатов.
В процессе проигрывания сценария выбирают несколько проектов, которые должны обладать следующими положениями: 
- Первоначальные переменные определенного значения.
- Результативные показатели.
- Процентное сопоставление выбора определенной программы, которая определяется экспериментальным вариантом.
В итоге идет расчет среднего показателя, который в дальнейшем станет результирующим значением. При этом берет на рассмотрение каждый вариант исхода событий.
Оценка восприимчивости проходит в несколько этапов:
- Выбрать переменную, которая станет основой расчетных данных (дисконтированная прибыль в чистом виде или основной доход).
- Определить дополнительные элементы (инвестиция в оборотном активе, стоимость ремонтных работ, объем проданного товара и его стоимость).
- Числовой предел основных компонентов, который устанавливается с обоих участков.
- Рассчитать дисконтированную прибыль в чистом виде и норму прибыльности, учитывая каждую переменную.
- Построение графической плоскости. При этом учитывается каждая переменная, и визуально оцениваются критические точки в программе инвестиций.
Варьируемые исходные переменные
Основными варьируемыми переменными являются следующие компоненты:
- Количество проданного товара.
- Стоимость единичного экземпляра продукта.
- Затрата на инвестиции сырьевой базы, материальной основы, технического оснащения, заработной платы, строительных работ.
- Временной период строительных работ.
- Стоимость определенного периода, которому принадлежит ценовой диапазон каждой операции.
- Задержка платежа и ее последствия.
- Вероятность инфляционной составляющей, которая влияет на стоимость оборудования и сырьевого компонента.
- Процентная ставка кредитования.
Результирующие показатели реализации проекта
Основными результирующие показатели определяются следующими положениями:
- Эффективные показатели:
- Дисконтированная прибыль.
- Уровень дохода.
- Индексация дохода.
- Период сбыта продукции.
- Выгодность проекта.
- Показатель ежегодного спроса:
- Баланс организации.
- Чистый доход.
Учет результатов анализа чувствительности
Учет и прогноз перемены показателей на результат программы является основной целью оценки восприимчивости.
Одним из вариантов считается изменение вводного показателя. При этом оценивается уровень воздействия каждой переменной. Это позволяет учесть все возможные варианты развития событий.
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Если хорошо рассчитать все все подробности инвестиционного проекте, то в итоге всегда можно будет иметь хорошую прибыльность с любого товара.
Чтоб начинающий проект имел успех, нужно сразу составить бизнес план, в котором должны четко прописаны все затраты и ожидаемая прибыль.
Это понятно, но уже работающее предприятие нужно все время улучшать и оптимизировать, для чего и нужны подобные анализы. Ведь с помощью полученных данных можно корректировать объем производства и другие показатели.
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